The latest research by Yopa has revealed that the government’s approval of Gatwick Airport’s second runway could spell a short-term drop in property values near the airport by up to £40,000. Construction noise and disruption will account for initial declines, while wider economic benefits may take years to materialise. By 2030, house prices in the surrounding Gatwick Diamond area are forecast to rebound with a 9.5% increase. In the meantime, homeowners will face a challenging but potentially rewarding wait as the project transforms the local housing market.
The government’s recent approval of a £2.2 billion privately financed second runway project at Gatwick Airport is set to have a mixed impact on property values in the surrounding “Gatwick Diamond” area. New research from property platform Yopa reveals that while some homeowners may face a short-term drop in house prices of up to £40,000, the long-term outlook could involve a significant rebound with property values rising by nearly 10% after completion.
Initial Announcement Brings Buyer Uncertainty and Price Dips
Before construction begins, homebuyers around Gatwick have already shown signs of caution. Yopa’s analysis suggests that property prices could decline by an average of 3% during the announcement and planning phase due to concerns over noise, pollution, and disruption. This translates to an average reduction of around £16,200 in Mole Valley and approximately £14,600 in Reigate and Banstead.
Other nearby areas like Horsham and Mid Sussex face potential dips exceeding £13,000, while Crawley residents might see a smaller fall nearer £9,800.
Construction Phase Poised to Hit Prices Hardest
Once construction starts and the runway becomes operational, those homes closest to the airport and affected flight paths may experience sharper price declines. The Yopa report forecasts house price falls of up to 7.5% in these impact zones, amounting to a loss of more than £40,000 in Mole Valley alone.
Other areas set to experience notable reductions include Tandridge (£38,270), Reigate and Banstead (£36,470), Horsham (£33,080), Mid Sussex (£32,700) and Crawley (£24,500).
The scale of the immediate price impact will depend heavily on factors such as the management of noise pollution, flight paths, and environmental considerations, as well as the proximity to construction zones. Measures like noise insulation, restrictions on night flights, and improved transport infrastructure could mitigate some negative effects.
Economic Growth a Potential Bright Spot After 2030
Despite these near-term challenges, the research highlights a silver lining. The second runway project is expected to unlock significant economic benefits, including up to 14,000 new jobs and enhanced transport links.
Once the development is complete, which is anticipated by 2030, house prices in the wider Gatwick area could increase by an average of 9.5%. This uplift is based on observed trends following similar airport expansions in the UK, reflecting the positive influence of increased economic activity on the property market.
Local Authorities Most Affected
The “Gatwick Diamond” covers six local authorities: Crawley, Reigate and Banstead, Horsham, Mid Sussex, Mole Valley, and Tandridge. These areas will bear the most direct impact, both from the initial price dips and eventual recovery, due to their proximity to the airport and new flight paths.
Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa, described the market uncertainty facing homeowners “Many within the Gatwick Diamond will understandably be worried about the impact on their property values. The construction phase and ongoing operational changes may cause value fluctuations, particularly for homes close to the runway. However, with sensible management of noise, traffic, and environmental factors, and once the project delivers economic growth and improved transport connectivity, we expect the long-term outlook to be positive.”
Project Details and Next Steps
The second runway plan involves shifting Gatwick’s existing northern emergency runway by 12 metres to allow regular use and simultaneous flight operations alongside the main runway. The scheme includes terminal expansions and upgrades to surrounding transport infrastructure, such as highway improvements. It is fully privately financed and deemed “shovel-ready,” aiming to increase the airport’s capacity to 80 million passengers annually.
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