The UK property market is taking a breather after a few years of significant price rises. Whilst the latest data from Halifax and Nationwide shows average prices in the main are falling, as we’ve often stated in our property features, any ‘pain’ will not be shared equally, and this can be seen in a new market analysis from eXp UK, that shows three areas that are bucking the trend during the downturn.
If one were to focus solely on the news headlines or watch videos from self-professed experts in the legacy and alternative media space, you’d be forgiven for thinking that UK house prices were in absolute freefall and homeowners’ worst fears were being realised.
Although property prices have fallen, it’s far from the catastrophic scenario some are painting, and the pain is not being shared equally, with some areas clearly being impacted more than others.
To determine where prices had risen or fallen, eXp UK conducted a market analysis, and the data revealed three areas that have actually experienced a rise since the interest rate increases began in December 2021.
The analysis
eXp UK analysed the latest data from the Gov UK House Price Index (May 2023 – latest available), adjusting historic data in line with inflation to ascertain which parts of the country have experienced rises and which have had the largest falls.
Although the overall picture shows that property prices are falling by small amounts month-on-month, some regions, which are considered more affordable such as Scotland, have been less impacted compared to pricier areas, and one very surprising piece of data from the research is that a well-known, somewhat pricy London region has performed better than anywhere in the country.
The three areas bucking the trend
When analysing the property market at the local authority level, the research by eXp UK shows that house prices in the City of London rose by 4.7% over the period to reach £988,000, while there was also a price increase of 3.2% in West Lancashire to £239,000, as well as an uplift of 2.1% in Melton to £313,000.
Other regions like London’s Tower Hamlets, Monmouthshire in Wales and St Helens, Merseyside, saw only minor falls in property prices of -1.1%, -1.4% and -1.8% respectively.
How has London fared?
The capital is the most and least affected depending on where you look, and despite the relative positivity found in the City of London and Tower Hamlets, London local authorities accounted for six in 10 of the worst affected areas across the UK.
The City of Westminster has seen a dramatic house price fall of -25.5%, worse than any other local authority, as house prices started from a high base of £1.24 million before falling back to £921,000.
Similarly, the prime area of Kensington and Chelsea saw price falls of -20.9%, from £1.66 million to £1.31 million, while Islington experienced a reduction of -18.7%, from £849,000 to £690,000.
Prices in Scotland
Three areas in Scotland have been badly affected, with the City of Aberdeen seeing an -18.4% fall, Angus a -16.8% reduction, and North Ayrshire experiencing a -15.9% fall.
As a result, prices in North Ayrshire average at just £124,000, while they stand at £163,000 in Angus and around £140,000 in Aberdeen, proving that cheaper areas aren’t always shielded from declines in property prices.
Head of eXp UK, Adam Day, commented, “It’s been a difficult period for investors and homeowners, as rapid interest rate rises have stifled a market which previously experienced unprecedented house price growth. But the research highlights that it’s not the same everywhere, as more expensive areas generally seem to have suffered more.
“Scotland has been the least affected region on average, with areas like East Lothian barely seeing any decline at all. London is the most affected area, while looking closer, certain prime areas like Westminster have been hit extremely hard.
“Supply and demand are key, so if you’re a buyer, you should check out the availability of properties in your region to ascertain whether there’s value to be had. If there’s ample supply, there may be an opportunity to haggle on price.”
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